QuantCube Research & Insight
Latest Insights
Insight - 2021
Inflation - the hot topic as the economy gets warmer
June 2021 Newsletter
Predict global inflation accurately and enhance investment performance with QuantCube Inflation Index
Since the beginning of the year the risks of higher inflation have been widely commented on by economists and market participants. As the economy begins to recover from the initial shock of the pandemic, we observe that prices are supported by strong global demand. This was mainly fuelled by strong fiscal boosts and accommodative monetary policies around the world. Sharp increases have been observed in some commodity prices, i.e. Oil, Copper, Lumber.
Data Science for Economics and Finance - joint research with European Commission Joint Research Centre
June 2021
Economic and fiscal policies conceived by international organizations, govern- ments, and central banks heavily depend on economic forecasts, in particular during times of economic and societal turmoil like the one we have recently experienced with the coronavirus spreading worldwide. The accuracy of economic forecasting and nowcasting models is however still problematic since modern economies are subject to numerous shocks that make the forecasting and nowcasting tasks extremely hard, both in the short and medium-long runs. QuantCube collaborated with European Commission Joint Research Centre to explore alternative data applications and methodologies.
Shaping Africa’s Post-Covid Recovery - joint research with Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
February 2021
The state of tourism in Africa during Covid-19 and beyond: Evidence from big data
QuantCube and CEPR collaborated for the research using Big Data technology, particularly QuantCube’s Tourism Index for Africa.
US ELECTIONS: accurate prediction using social media data analytics
December 2020 Newsletter
QuantCube’s prediction on Electoral College results was very close to the final results published on December 14th. Most importantly, QuantCube predicted accurately Joe Biden would get the Rust Belt states (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) that had cost Hillary Clinton’s victory in 2016.
October 2020 US Election Update
October 2020 Newsletter
QuantCube Technology has developed an innovative methodology to predict the US 2020 presidential elections by combining high-frequency macroeconomic data and social media sentiment analysis models
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM COVID-19
September 2020 Newsletter
International trade has been widely affected by the Covid-19 crisis through the disruptions of supply chains and the drop in global demand. However, there is evidence of heterogeneity in the pace of the recovery, especially when comparing China and the US. China was the first impacted economy at the very beginning of 2020 but now China seems to have fully recovered as regards international trade and stands at its 2019 level.
Recovery shape: leveraging the power of big data
July 2020 Joint Research with Credit Agricole
The surge in new Covid-19 cases has reduced macroeconomic visibility drastically both in the US and in emerging markets. With market valuations still on the high side, downside risk is on the rise. The shape of the recovery will critically depend on how household consumption expenditure evolves. However, this factor is highly uncertain, as we do not know how households will adjust their spending behaviour, and it is difficult to track with the official data.
Rather than guessing the shape of the recovery in consumer spending using historical behaviours as templates, Crédit Agricole CIB Research has decided to leverage QuantCube Technology’s nowcasting expertise.
Big Data in Transportation An Economics Perspective - joint working paper with World Bank
June 2020
This paper reviews the emerging big data literature applied to urban transportation issues from the perspective of economic research. It provides a typology of big data sources relevant to transportation analyses and describes how these data can be used to measure mobility, associated external- ities, and welfare impacts. As an application, it showcases the use of daily traffic conditions data in various developed
and developing country cities to estimate the causal impact of stay-at-home orders during the Covid-19 pandemic on traffic congestion in Bogotá, New Dehli, New York, and Paris. In light of the advances in big data analytics, the paper concludes with a discussion on policy opportunities and challenges.
US - overview of the impact of Coronavirus
April 2020 Newsletter
GDP NOWCAST FOR US LEVERAGING ALTERNATIVE DATA
QuantCube GDP Nowcast is able to efficiently track U.S. GDP growth in real-time, especially with regards to peaks and troughs in the cycles. The nowcast leverages robust data science based on various alternative data at scale. April 2020 newsletter reviews US economy as the threat of the pandemic accelerates by leveraging alternative data to track GDP, Consumption, Job Openings, Industrial Production, Inflation, International Trade, Air Traffic and Road Traffic.
France - the effect of Coronavirus on French economy
April 2020 Newsletter
OVERVIEW OF THE PANDEMIC SITUATION IN FRANCE USING ALTERNATIVE DATA
As the threat from COVID-19 accelerates, QuantCube looks into its effect on French economy with a particular focus on Air Traffic, Road Congestion, Industry, International Trade, Inflation, Consumption and Job Openings.
Italy - the state of the economy under COVID-19
April 2020 Newsletter
HOW IS THE ECONOMY IN ITALY FAIRING UNDER THE THREAT OF THE PANDEMIC?
QuantCube looks into the impact of COVID-19 on Italian economy using alternative data for Air Traffic, Industry Activity, Tourism and Consumption.
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